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Stock Market Crashes: Predictable and Unpredictable and What to Do About Them

為了解決Apple stock price的問題，作者Ziemba, William T. (EDT)/ Lleo, Sebastien (EDT)/ Zhitlukhin, Mik 這樣論述：

This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. T

he focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in

predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates.

When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent

plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline prediction

s over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models

are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett’s value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby’s stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small

cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017.

We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&

amp;P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership

prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

Apple stock price進入發燒排行的影片

利用模糊層級分析法 探討半導體產業品牌影響因素之分析

為了解決Apple stock price的問題，作者范志旻 這樣論述：

隨著時間的流逝，半導體創新正在發生變化，可以適用於不同的創新業務，半導體業務的發展至關重要，因而開闢了許多新的職位。半導體業務是一個融合了不同創新能力並協調上游，中途和下游提供商的專業能力的行業，並且通常具有較高的進入壁壘 。廠家已投入花費很多精力與成本進入這個行業，期盼永續經營與回饋利害關係人。本研究第一步採用PEST, 五力 & SWOT分析，在美國，日本和臺灣，這些是國際半導體供應商鏈中的關鍵成員。經過最新半導體有關文獻的討論和分析，發現現有廠商已經建立了行業品牌，並獲得了用戶的信任。因此，品牌研究在這個行業是大家一直在探索的領域。考慮到寫作對話和大師談話，本研究使用分析層次結構(A

HP)研究技術對品牌的關鍵指針在半導體品牌的關鍵部件上進行重要性的排序，然後利用模糊層次分析法(FAHP)來分析這些標記之間的聯繫。經調查，有11項顯著結果可供參考，關鍵是要在半導體品牌建設上取得優異的成績，“客戶價值”和“品牌資產”都必須達到一定的水平。本研究發現，半導體品牌策略應以“客戶價值”為核心，解決客戶問題，創造卓越價值，並隨著技術的進步不斷投入新產品的研發，以奠定半導體品牌長期成功的基礎。

Stock Market Crashes: Predictable and Unpredictable and What to Do About Them

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為了解決Apple stock price的問題，作者Ziemba, William T. (EDT)/ Lleo, Sebastien (EDT)/ Zhitlukhin, Mik 這樣論述：

This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The

focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in pr

edicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When i

nterest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus d

eclines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over

a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are cal

l option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dom

inance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We stu

dy small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 g

raphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the

US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

公司對COVID-19 新聞報導的市場反應

為了解決Apple stock price的問題，作者李佳璉 這樣論述：

隨著疫情的持續蔓延，當公司報導確診病例數 或宣告如何面對 COVID-19 的預防措施時，可能會影響投資者對公司的態度。 投資者已經開始關注公司對COVID-19 新聞報導的市場反應，但尚未探索其公司對 COVID-19 的政策反應的影響。因此，本研究採用事件研究法，分析公司被報導COVID-19新聞的異常報酬與其公司公佈有關於 COVID-19 防疫措施是否存在差異。研究結果表明，被報導 COVID-19新聞的公司在短期間內具有不確定性 的 異常 報酬 ；反之在長期內會慢慢回歸穩定，而發布 COVID-19的應變措施之公司在事件期間有負向的異常報酬。另外，我們透過內容分析發現，COVID-

19新聞的兩個特徵(正面詞的頻率和負面詞的頻率)，與累積異常報酬有顯著的相關。這些發現可以讓管理者了解 COVID-19 新聞 對公司宣布 COVID-19 應變措施的影響，並提高投資者對金融市場的警覺 。